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Itaú Expect BCRP To Cut Again, But Delay In Fed Easing May Limit How Low Rates Can Go

PERU
  • Itaú expect the BCRP to continue cutting its policy rate, with another 25bp move this week to a level of 6.00%, on the back of weak activity and falling inflation.
  • While inflation rebounded in February, most of the upside pressure came from volatile food items and core inflation stood slightly above the upper bound of the target range. Despite the surprise, Itaú still expect inflation to end the year at 2.8%.
  • In this context and amid soft activity, they think that BCRP is unlikely to pause its easing cycle in the near term. However, the expectation of a delay in the start of the Fed’s easing cycle may limit how low the policy rate could fall. Itaú’s end of year policy rate is at 5.00%, but with an upward bias.
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