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Itaú Expecting Above Trend Growth In Mexico in 2024

MEXICO
  • According to Itaú, activity in Q4 was dragged by industrial production which registered a null expansion (likely associated to the construction sector losing steam and a soft manufacturing output).
  • Itaú said the GDP flash estimate reaffirms their expectation of a softer than expected expansion in activity in 4Q23, placing a downside bias to their 2023 GDP growth forecast of 3.4% (using preliminary data from INEGI at 3.1%).
  • For 2024, Itaú expect activity to continue to grow at an above trend growth of 2.8% supported by an expansive fiscal stance. Benefits from nearshoring may also support activity this year.
  • On monetary policy, Itaú previously noted the hawkish tone in Banxico’s December statement, as reflected by the higher core inflation forecast, while maintaining the shift in guidance from November, suggest the easing cycle is likely to begin in March with a 25-bp rate cut.
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