MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CPI +0.3% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Itaú Expects BCCh To Pause Easing Cycle After 25bp Cut Next Week

CHILE
  • Itaú expects the BCCh to close off this phase of the easing cycle with a 25bp cut to 5.5% in the July 31 monetary policy meeting, followed by a prolonged pause. In their view, recent communication from BCCh officials signals a neutral shift. Itaú expects rate cuts to resume in late 2025 to 4.5%, the ceiling of the BCCh’s current 3.5-4.5% nominal neutral range.
  • The minutes from the June meeting showed that the Board believed the 25bp option signalled the transitory nature of the supply-shock and would consolidate expectations of lower rates over the forecast horizon. The option also gave the Board flexibility to implement another cut during the remainder of the year if the central scenario materialised.
  • Core inflation in June came in below the central bank’s scenario, while weak commercial credit dynamics have probably heightened downside risks to the activity recovery path, providing room for another cut in Itaú’s view. The following MPC meeting is scheduled for September 3, with the IPoM to be published on September 4. The latter is likely to include a revision to the structural parameters, with a possible upward revision to the centre of the neutral rate range.
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