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Itaú Expects Growth Recovery To Be Contained Ahead

CHILE
  • Itaú notes that the better-than-expected rebound in economic activity in July was supported by one additional working day during the month and reversal of transitory effects that weighed on certain sectors, such as education, in June. The seasonally and calendar adjusted series came in at 2.8% y/y, vs. 2.2% in June, and Itaú says that if the economy maintains the end-July level through year-end, GDP would expand by roughly 2.3% y/y.
  • Despite the rebound in July, Itaú notes that activity still has ground to recover, with the IMACEC index rising by 1.8% y/y in the quarter ending July, vs. 2.5% in Q1. In their view, indicators signal that the improvement ahead should be contained. Real loans growth remains weak, while the fiscal scenario suggests spending cuts ahead to meet fiscal targets and the labour market has shown a gradual deterioration.
  • Itaú still has a 2.5% GDP growth forecast for the year. While the activity rebound in July surpassed expectations, activity levels remain below that of February. They expect the BCCh to lower the range of its 2.25%-3.0% growth forecast for this year when it updates its baseline scenario in the IPoM on Wednesday.
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