© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, October 23

MNI BRIEF: Inflation Down, Deficits Up - Bundesbank Report

MNI BRIEF: China To Reach Target of 5% GDP Growth - Lou Jiwei

Losses Extend, Recent Ranges Intact For Now

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 3/6-Month ATB Auction on Tuesday

BoC Data Watch

MNI BRIEF: Stabilizing Prices Helps BOC Turn Neutral-Freeland

MNI BRIEF: Canada Needs CAD1 Trln To Fix Housing Squeeze- CMHC

MNI BRIEF: Canada Shows No Progress Closing Housing Shortfall

Itaú Increase Year-End Inflation Forecast To 5.1%

BRAZIL
BulletEM BulletEmerging Markets NewsHomepage
  • Following the fuel prices adjustment, Itaú now expect a 5.1% increase in the IPCA this year (from 4.9%). Yesterday, Petrobras announced an increase in fuel prices, a movement that came in above Itau’s short-term expectations, which included a smaller adjustment in gasoline, close to 5%.
  • As a result, the rise has an additional impact of approximately +25 bps in the months of August and September. Itaú have revised their 2023 IPCA forecast to 5.1% from 4.9%, however, maintain the forecast for the 2024 IPCA at 4.3%.
  • On the one hand, a still tight labour market should continue to pressure service inflation next year. On the other, an additional drop in commodity prices or an acceleration in industrial inventory levels pose a downside risk for their forecast.

125 words

To read the full story

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Following the fuel prices adjustment, Itaú now expect a 5.1% increase in the IPCA this year (from 4.9%). Yesterday, Petrobras announced an increase in fuel prices, a movement that came in above Itau’s short-term expectations, which included a smaller adjustment in gasoline, close to 5%.
  • As a result, the rise has an additional impact of approximately +25 bps in the months of August and September. Itaú have revised their 2023 IPCA forecast to 5.1% from 4.9%, however, maintain the forecast for the 2024 IPCA at 4.3%.
  • On the one hand, a still tight labour market should continue to pressure service inflation next year. On the other, an additional drop in commodity prices or an acceleration in industrial inventory levels pose a downside risk for their forecast.