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Itaú Predicting 100BP Of BanRep Cuts in Q4

COLOMBIA
  • Whilst commenting on Colombia’s economy contracting sequentially in 2Q23, Itaú have noted a clear weakening of domestic demand. The evident activity slowdown and the gradual inflation correction lead Itaú to believe the easing cycle is pencilled in for 4Q23, with the policy rate falling to 12.25% by year-end.
  • The bank noted that in annual terms, the moderate rise in annual GDP was driven by public consumption. Gross fixed investment contracted sharply sequentially at 5.3% (SA), and imports fell by 7.6% (SA).
  • By economic sectors, activity was pulled up by entertainment and public administration, while dragged down by manufacturing and construction.
  • At the margin, the monthly coincident indicator shows that activity rise at 1.1% MoM/SA during the final month of the quarter, building on the 0.6% expansion in May, despite weak retail and manufacturing prints.
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