FREELAND: CANADA WON'T ESCALATE OR BACK DOWN ON US TRADE FIGHT

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI BRIEF: China Nov M1 Decline Narrows, M2 Slows

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 8/13/28/50-Week BTF Auction on Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.125% Jul-29 Gilt Due on Tuesday

MNI: CANADA OCT WHOLESALE SALES +3.3%; EX-AUTOS +0.5%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Itaú Revise Year-end Selic Rate Forecast To 9.25%

BRAZIL
  • Itaú believe that the prospect of a shorter easing cycle in the US as well as the deterioration of domestic inflationary dynamics at the margin will probably curtail the decline of interest rates in Brazil. They now expect the Selic rate to finish the year at 9.25% (vs. 9.00% previously) and to remain at that level throughout 2025.
  • They have also raised their GDP growth estimates to 2.0% from 1.8% for both 2024 and 2025, due to the improved credit outlook. Improved activity should allow a marginal reduction in the primary budget deficit, but fiscal uncertainties remain high. They see primary deficits of 0.7% of GDP this year (vs. 0.8% prior) and 0.9% of GDP in 2025 (vs. 1.0% prior).
  • Itaú have maintained their year-end exchange rate forecasts at BRL 4.90 per dollar in 2024 and BRL 5.10 in 2025. CPI inflation is still seen at 3.6% this year, but underlying services inflation is expected to be higher.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.