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Itaú Says Banxico Minutes Consistent With 25bp August Rate Cut

MEXICO
  • Following the publication of today’s Banxico minutes, Itaú believes that at least three board members are open for a rate cut in the next meeting. They note that even one of the board members who had a hawkish tone in the minutes did not rule out fine-tuning adjustments in the policy rate.
  • Overall, Itaú thinks the minutes are consistent with their base scenario of a 25bp policy rate cut at the August 08 meeting. However, bouts of volatility related to post-election uncertainty risk another pause, while there are two more key inflation prints due before the meeting.
  • The minutes revealed that deputy governor Omar Mejía’s vote for a 25bp cut was based on his view that the economy was experiencing two inflationary shocks in opposite directions. He added that the level of contractionary monetary policy should reflect the progress of the disinflationary process and greater slack conditions.
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