Free Trial

ARGENTINA: Itaú Sees 4.2% Rebound In Economy Next Year

ARGENTINA
  • Following last week’s stronger-than-expected October economic activity data, Itaú says that the recovery remains on track, supported by the improvement in real wages. In fact, they note that real wages expanded by 1.9% m/m in October, marking the seventh consecutive monthly gain.
  • Activity rose by 3.0% q/q (sa) in October, after gaining 3.9% q/q (sa) in September. Most of the sectors contracted on an annual basis at the beginning of Q4 – albeit at a softer rate – as the effects of the stabilisation measures fade. Construction fell by 16.4% y/y, affected by the freezing of public works, while manufacturing contracted by 5.5% y/y and services by 3.4% y/y. However, primary activities rose by 4.4% y/y, still reflecting the normalisation of agriculture after last year's severe drought.
  • Itaú recently revised their 2024 GDP forecast to -3.0%, from -3.5%, but now see risks titled to a smaller drop this year. For 2025, they expect a 4.2% expansion, supported by a higher statistical carry-over, the recovery in real wages and a better investment environment.
170 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Following last week’s stronger-than-expected October economic activity data, Itaú says that the recovery remains on track, supported by the improvement in real wages. In fact, they note that real wages expanded by 1.9% m/m in October, marking the seventh consecutive monthly gain.
  • Activity rose by 3.0% q/q (sa) in October, after gaining 3.9% q/q (sa) in September. Most of the sectors contracted on an annual basis at the beginning of Q4 – albeit at a softer rate – as the effects of the stabilisation measures fade. Construction fell by 16.4% y/y, affected by the freezing of public works, while manufacturing contracted by 5.5% y/y and services by 3.4% y/y. However, primary activities rose by 4.4% y/y, still reflecting the normalisation of agriculture after last year's severe drought.
  • Itaú recently revised their 2024 GDP forecast to -3.0%, from -3.5%, but now see risks titled to a smaller drop this year. For 2025, they expect a 4.2% expansion, supported by a higher statistical carry-over, the recovery in real wages and a better investment environment.