December 23, 2024 15:06 GMT
ARGENTINA: Itaú Sees 4.2% Rebound In Economy Next Year
ARGENTINA
- Following last week’s stronger-than-expected October economic activity data, Itaú says that the recovery remains on track, supported by the improvement in real wages. In fact, they note that real wages expanded by 1.9% m/m in October, marking the seventh consecutive monthly gain.
- Activity rose by 3.0% q/q (sa) in October, after gaining 3.9% q/q (sa) in September. Most of the sectors contracted on an annual basis at the beginning of Q4 – albeit at a softer rate – as the effects of the stabilisation measures fade. Construction fell by 16.4% y/y, affected by the freezing of public works, while manufacturing contracted by 5.5% y/y and services by 3.4% y/y. However, primary activities rose by 4.4% y/y, still reflecting the normalisation of agriculture after last year's severe drought.
- Itaú recently revised their 2024 GDP forecast to -3.0%, from -3.5%, but now see risks titled to a smaller drop this year. For 2025, they expect a 4.2% expansion, supported by a higher statistical carry-over, the recovery in real wages and a better investment environment.
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