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Itaú Sees Downside Bias To 2.3% GDP Growth Estimate

MEXICO
  • Itaú notes that the reported 18.1% y/y increase in gross fixed investment in April was partly driven by a favourable calendar base effect. Adjusting for working days, GFI grew 10.2% y/y. In seasonally-adjusted terms, GFI rose by 0.9% m/m, driven by construction investment. Meanwhile, private consumption weakened, falling by 0.9% m/m (sa), although the q/q saar of private consumption stood at a resilient 6.6% in April.
  • Looking ahead, Itaú expects GFI to lose momentum as fiscal expenditures associated to public infrastructure softens in H2, after elections and amid the transition between administrations. They also expect private consumption to expand at a softer pace in H2, although the recent depreciation of MXN will boost remittances and could give some support.
  • Nonetheless, Itaú recently noted a downside bias to their 2.3% GDP growth forecast for this year, after a weaker than expected monthly GDP figure for April. For comparison, latest Bloomberg consensus sits at 2.0%, while yesterday’s Banxico survey showed analysts trimming their GDP growth estimates to 2.00% for this year and 1.68% for next.
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