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Itaú Still Expect BanRep Easing To Commence In Q1 Next Year

COLOMBIA
  • According to Itaú, falling imports amid still growing exports helped continued the GDP contraction in the quarter. Sequentially, the economy grew 0.2% (SA) from 2Q23 to 3Q23, only partially offsetting the prior 1.0% fall.
  • The evident activity slowdown will raise calls to start the rate cut cycle, yet sticky inflation at elevated levels along with inflation expectations well above the target mean the bar is high to initiate the easing cycle at next month's meeting.
  • Itaú continue to expect cuts in 1Q24. From Itaú’s latest macro scenario report, they expect the policy rate at 8.0% for year-end 2024 (up 50 bps from their previous scenario, still well above the nominal neutral rate of around 5%).
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