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ITV Results Look In-Line With Cost Savings To Come Early; Credit Metrics Solid

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  • Sole EUR bond yet to stream
  • FY results look in-line on revenue at -3% YoY while adj-EBITA was +1.5% against consensus (note only six estimates) at -32% YoY on the decline in advertising revs and the guided investment in ITVX.
  • Results look ahead of guidance on ITV Studios revenue (+3.5% vs. ~3%) and broadly in line on Total Advertising (-7.9% vs. ~8%).
  • EBITDA leverage of 1x (from 1.2x at H1 and 0.8x at FY22) with GBP 361mn FCF (from GBP 280mn in FY22) and 102% profit to cash conversion on favourable WC moves (88% at FY22).
  • 2026 cost savings target (GBP 150mn) to come one year early.
  • Writers strikes to delay GBP 80mn in rev from 2024 to 2025.

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