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Free AccessJ.P.Morgan: 5-Year Supply May Require Above Average End-User Demand
J.P.Morgan note that Wednesday will see the Treasury auction $61bn 5-Year notes, "unchanged in size from last month. 5-Year yields have increased 10bp since the May auction and are trading near the high end of the range they have held for the last three months, though the sector appears rich along the curve after adjusting for the level of rates and the shape of the curve. The WI 5-Year roll opened at +2.25bp, in line with our fair value estimate, and is now trading at +1.875bp, roughly in line with the erosion of carry. From a liquidity perspective, market depth in the 5-Year sector declined last week alongside a broader deterioration in liquidity and remains impaired relative to its 1-Year average. Overall, despite the rise in yields, given current valuations and reduced liquidity, we think tomorrow's auction will likely require above average end-user demand in order to be digested smoothly."
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.