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J.P. Morgan - Close Call Between August Or October BoK Cut

BOK

The US bank weighs in on the BoK outlook in light of last week's data. It notes it is now a close call between a cut in August or October. The BoK July policy announcement is on Thursday


J.P. Morgan: "CPI inflation was soft in June, implying higher odds for an August policy rate cut
The manufacturing sector data this week was upbeat, offsetting the disappointing industrial production data last week. Customs goods exports recovered in June and 2Q’s quarterly export growth rebounded after 1Q’s temporary blip. Manufacturing PMI rose further from May’s elevated level to provide an upbeat signal for manufacturing production going forward. Meanwhile, June CPI inflation came in softer than expected, and our revised annual 2024 inflation forecast (2.3%y/y) suggests downside risk to the BoK’s May forecast (2.6%). Given the more stable inflation data, we think the dovish tone from the MPC should be reinforced in July, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in August. While we still expect a rate cut in 4Q24 (most likely in October), the decision between an August or October action is now a close call."

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