J.P. Morgan FX Techs On EUR/USD,

The US bank technical FX backdrop for EUR/USD expects to see any end year rebound towards 1.0800 faded, see below for more details.

"EUR/USD churns in a fairly tight range despite volatility in other asset classes. We continue to view the price action above the 1.0483-1.0516 early-2023 range lows and below the first pocket of resistance just above 1.06 as consolidation in a bear trend. While the market is still working off oversold momentum and sentiment conditions, it would not surprise to see further consolidation near the early-2023 range lows and 1.0405 Sep 2022 50% retrace. We maintain a bearish risky market outlook for now, but if stocks happen to find a short-term bottom and set the market up for a late-year rally as seasonality tends to favor, that would increase the risk for further EUR upside over that period. Even if that develops, we would expect a stronger countertrend move to fade near key resistance levels surrounding 1.08. That includes the mid-Sep rebound high, Mar-May internal trend line, and cluster of moving averages that have now started to all trend lower. On the downside, a break below the 1.0405 Sep 2022 50% retrace would seek our ultimate targets for the medium-term weakness at the 1.02 Sep 2022 61.8% retrace, 1.02 Sep 2023 trend-line breakdown objective, and 1.01-1.02 4Q22 base pattern highs. We expect that move to develop by the end of 1Q24 if it doesn’t unfold this quarter."