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J.P.Morgan Like 10-Year Breakeven Wideners

US TSYS/TIPS

J.P.Morgan think that "monetary policy should remain a tailwind for breakevens
over the coming months, and the next few core CPI prints should be
strong as index components hardest hit by shelter-in-place mandates
continue to recover. Fundamentals remain supportive of TIPS even at
current valuations… the rally in breakevens has been driven by the front
end…the 5s/10s breakeven curve inverted for the first time in nearly two
years and the 5s/30s breakeven curve is also at historically flat levels.
While we think that breakevens can continue to drift wider into and
coming out of the FOMC meeting in September, we look for widening in a
more parallel fashion along the curve compared to what we have
observed recently. Technical (TIPS) factors remain supportive, with carry
projected to turn substantially positive next month and retail inflows still
robust.With supply behind us, and intermediate breakevens somewhat
cheap relative to the wings, we recommend initiating nominal beta-
weighted 10-year breakeven wideners."

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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