J.P.Morgan Push Back Timing Of Final Hike Call To October

J.P.Morgan note that Eurozone “PMIs drop to a level consistent with a stall in growth”

• They now “expect the ECB to pause in September to see more data,” and push back the timing of their call for what they believe will be the final hike in the current cycle to October (prev. September).
• They caveat that with “the September decision can still be affected by ECB commentary and next week’s flash HICP, but a postponement feels more likely right now than another 25bp hike.”
• They conclude by noting that “the ECB’s objective in pausing would be to see more data to better assess the near-term outlook. Hence, unless we make a bigger reassessment of the expansion, a final hike would still be likely in October given current labour market signals. So, today, we are only postponing a September hike to October.”