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J.P.Morgan note that "the more positive market view about future growth and inflation into Jackson Hole faces two tests over the coming two months.
- The first test is the FOMC meeting of September 16th. Will the Fed support its new policy framework by accompanying it with more action or stimulus?
- The second test is related to the US Presidential election. And this test is not so much about who wins the election. The test for markets is instead related to the closeness of the result of the Presidential election. A very close result is likely to be contested resulting in political gridlock and a lack of policy action, potentially for months after the election.
- The above two tests are clearly presenting downside risks for equity and risk markets for the near term, i.e. into September/October. But for the medium to long term, we still see plenty of upside for equity markets given still low overall equity positioning. So a retreat in equity and risk markets during September or October would likely represent a buying opportunity.
- The rise in yields appears to reflect a number of investor groups turning more bearish on duration, and while retail investors have continued to buy bunds the duration impulse of those purchases has also diminished. That said, most of these positioning indicators appear far from stretched."