J.P.Morgan: "What Goes Up, Must Come Down"

Monday saw J.P.Morgan note that "after maintaining a bullish view on
gold prices for over 2.5 years, we believe bullion will likely see 1 last
hurrah before prices turn lower into year-end. Light positioning & surging
omentum in the near term can continue to carry gold higher over the
next month or so to ~$2,000/oz but the move will not be supported by
fundamentals. Therefore, we think the current price is close to a peak and
turn neutral on gold. Based on our valuation framework, for gold to
breach $2,000/oz on a sustained basis, the 10-year US real yield needs
to reset another 75bp lower to -165bp, a scenario that looks unlikely
given our macro forecasts. Instead, the 10-year US real yield is likely to
drift higher from its current level of ‑93bp to -75bp by mid-21. We see
gold coming off a near-term peak to average $1,880/oz in 4Q20. The
gold-to-silver ratio will likely see one more volatile leg lower in 3Q before
correcting higher over 4Q. Industrial silver demand could become more
influential to pricing over 2021 as precious fundamentals quieten."