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COLOMBIA: Jan CPI Above Expectations, Downtrend Seen Resuming Ahead

COLOMBIA
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  • Headline CPI inflation printed above expectations in January, with prices rising by 0.94% m/m (vs. 81% expected), following a 0.46% gain previously. The data reported after market close on Friday revealed that annual inflation edged up 2bp to 5.22% y/y, vs. 5.10% expected. Core inflation still moderated to 5.39% y/y, from 5.65%, 2bp below consensus forecasts.
    • JP Morgan sees the forecast error driven by food prices, while services and core inflation was roughly aligned to their estimates. Near-term they see upside risk coming from food and gas prices, but they still expect inflation to converge to 4.84% by March. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs still sees headline inflation resuming its downtrend in February, and maintains a base case for a 25bp March rate cut at this juncture.
    • Finance Minister Guevara sees the benchmark rate falling at a slower pace this year, however. His remarks came amid the presentation of the government’s 2025 financing plan when he also said that he sees the economy growing by 2.6% this year, with inflation at 3.6% at year-end.
    • Today, focus will be on the departure of the Public Credit Director head Acosta, after two years in the role, and resignation of Environment Minister Susana Muhamad. The changes come as President Petro requested the resignation of his ministers following a chaotic televised cabinet meeting last week.
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  • Headline CPI inflation printed above expectations in January, with prices rising by 0.94% m/m (vs. 81% expected), following a 0.46% gain previously. The data reported after market close on Friday revealed that annual inflation edged up 2bp to 5.22% y/y, vs. 5.10% expected. Core inflation still moderated to 5.39% y/y, from 5.65%, 2bp below consensus forecasts.
    • JP Morgan sees the forecast error driven by food prices, while services and core inflation was roughly aligned to their estimates. Near-term they see upside risk coming from food and gas prices, but they still expect inflation to converge to 4.84% by March. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs still sees headline inflation resuming its downtrend in February, and maintains a base case for a 25bp March rate cut at this juncture.
    • Finance Minister Guevara sees the benchmark rate falling at a slower pace this year, however. His remarks came amid the presentation of the government’s 2025 financing plan when he also said that he sees the economy growing by 2.6% this year, with inflation at 3.6% at year-end.
    • Today, focus will be on the departure of the Public Credit Director head Acosta, after two years in the role, and resignation of Environment Minister Susana Muhamad. The changes come as President Petro requested the resignation of his ministers following a chaotic televised cabinet meeting last week.