POWER
Poland’s Jan 25 power contract remained relatively flat on the day amid small gains in European coal and emissions. The contract settled down by around 2.87% on the week, after having fallen by around 2.1% the week before. Looking ahead, spot prices are likely to be supported on the week amid low wind anticipated for most days over 23-27 Dec.
- Poland Jan25 baseload power settled at PLN445.85/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN445.60/MWh on 19 Dec, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.6% at 68.08 EUR/MT
- Rotterdam Coal JAN 25 up 0.1% at 107.15 USD/MT at 13:41 BST
- Average temperatures in Warsaw are estimated to flip below the norm on 26 Dec to drop as low as -1.6C on 28 Dec before being between 0.06C and -1.58C over 29 Dec to 3 Jan.
- The Jan 25 contract traded 32 times in 46 lots from 64 lots exchanged in the previous session.
- Jan opened at PLN446/MWh before rising to a daily high of PLN448/MWh in the middle of the session and dropping to a low of PLN445/MWh at the end of the session.
- Closer in, the day-ahead moved downward to PLN280/MWh for Saturday delivery from PLN289.14/MWh for Friday despite wind being expected to fall to 4.86GW, or 52% load factor tomorrow compared to 6.22GW today.
- Demand is also expected to drop on the day to around 18.44GW from 19.79GW today.
- Looking slightly ahead, wind is expected at between 2-21% load factors over 23-27 December (Mon-Fri) – which could support power prices and lift up costs higher on the week.
- However, demand could be weekend by lower industrial consumption owing to the holidays.
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