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Jan Export Growth Eased, Shipments To The US Slowed

SOUTH KOREA

The first 20-days of trade data for Jan, showed a less positive picture compared to the start of the month and the full month of Dec. Exports fell -1.0% (the prior first 20-day read for Dec was +13%y/y). On the import side we fell -18.2% y/y (versus -9.2% y/y for Dec). The trade deficit was at -$2.61bn, although this does tend to improve for the full month.

  • The detail was better than the headlines suggested though, with daily average exports at +2.2% y/y, suggesting day count effects impacted the headline drop.
  • This still suggests weaker full month momentum for January exports, see the chart below.
  • Chip exports were +19.7% y/y as well, so a slight improvement on the prior rise of 19.3%.
  • Exports to China were +0.1%y/y (the first 20-days of Dec recorded a -0.4% y/y fall). We did see a pull back in the US though, with growth slowing to +3.6% y/y for the first 20-days of Jan, versus +30.2% prior.

Fig 1: South Korean First 20-days Exports & Full Month Trend Y/Y


Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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