Jan HICP Revised Up, Core at Fresh Euro-Era High

EZ HICP JAN FINAL -0.2% M/M (FLASH -0.4%); DEC -0.4% Y/Y

EZ HICP JAN FINAL +8.6% Y/Y (FLASH +8.5%); DEC +9.2% Y/Y

EZ HICP JAN FINAL CORE CPI -0.8% M/M, +5.3% Y/Y (FLASH +5.2% Y/Y)

• Eurozone HICP was revised upwards by 0.1pp to the to +8.6% y/y in the final January print.
• This confirms a 0.6pp deceleration in headline HICP for the bloc, implying a third consecutive month of easing annualised price pressures. Slowing energy prices accounted for the bulk of downwards pressure.
• On the month, prices fell by -0.2% m/m, 0.2pp less sharp than flash estimates. Revisions to headline Y/Y and M/M HICP were in line with consensus expectations.
• The fall in prices on the month was led by non-energy industrial goods (-1.9%) and to a lesser extend a tick down in services inflation (-0.1%).
• Of concern to the ECB will be the upside surprise to core HICP, which was revised up by 0.1pp to a fresh euro-era high of +5.3% y/y.
• The ECB has largely pre-committed to a 50bp hike in March, and this more higher in core increases the probability of a steeper curve through May-September.