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THAILAND: Jan Inflation Remains In Band, Q4 GDP Prints Before Next BoT Meeting

THAILAND
EM BulletAPACEmerging Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsThailand

Thai CPI for January printed in line with consensus with headline up 0.1pp to 1.3% y/y and core steady at 0.8% y/y, still below Bank of Thailand’s 1-3% corridor. In December BoT projected 2025 inflation of 1.1% with core at 1.0%. The next decision is on February 26 and for now the central bank seems happy to keep rates around neutral despite political pressure for further easing. The January CPI data is unlikely to change this but Q4 GDP is out February 17.

  • The Commerce Ministry expects February inflation to be in line with January’s results.
  • Higher food prices driven by rice & cereal and fruit & veg offset lower non-food prices. Non-food rose 1.0% y/y down from 1.2% in November as transportation eased to 2.1% from 2.7% helped by a week of free train & bus travel, while other categories were fairly stable. Energy prices moderated to 4.25% y/y from 5.0% due to lower fuel and electricity rates.
  • USDTHB is up 0.2% to 33.66 today. After rising sharply on Monday in response to US tariff news, the pair is now little changed on the week. 

Thailand CPI y/y%

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Thai CPI for January printed in line with consensus with headline up 0.1pp to 1.3% y/y and core steady at 0.8% y/y, still below Bank of Thailand’s 1-3% corridor. In December BoT projected 2025 inflation of 1.1% with core at 1.0%. The next decision is on February 26 and for now the central bank seems happy to keep rates around neutral despite political pressure for further easing. The January CPI data is unlikely to change this but Q4 GDP is out February 17.

  • The Commerce Ministry expects February inflation to be in line with January’s results.
  • Higher food prices driven by rice & cereal and fruit & veg offset lower non-food prices. Non-food rose 1.0% y/y down from 1.2% in November as transportation eased to 2.1% from 2.7% helped by a week of free train & bus travel, while other categories were fairly stable. Energy prices moderated to 4.25% y/y from 5.0% due to lower fuel and electricity rates.
  • USDTHB is up 0.2% to 33.66 today. After rising sharply on Monday in response to US tariff news, the pair is now little changed on the week. 

Thailand CPI y/y%

Keep reading...Show less