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SWEDEN: Jan Meeting Minutes: Risks Still Tilted Towards More Easing

SWEDEN
Central Bank NewsSwedenCEEMEA RiksbankBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

The January meeting minutes suggest the Executive Board is happy with the current level of rates for now, as they assess the impact of past easing and look for more certainty around the international trade outlook. Governor Thedeen embodied this view most clearly, in our view. However, comments from other members suggest risks are clearly still tilted towards more easing.

  • Deputy Governor Breman noted that “the probability of the next step being a further rate cut is greater than the next step being a rate hike”, while Bunge still questioned whether monetary policy is “too contractionary” at current levels.
  • Although Deputy Governor Seim generally considers current rates to be at appropriate levels, she still highlighted that the Riksbank is prepared to cut rates further, in the event the economy doesn’t recover as expected.
  • On inflation, there continues to be broad-based confidence in the outlook. Deputy Governor Jansson and Governor Thedeen highlighted recent increases in producer prices as a risk to monitor, but that these developments do not yet change the assessment of monetary policy.
  • Recent upturns in growth indicators were widely flagged, but the Board still needs evidence to confirm activity is picking up. Deputy Governor Bunge pointed towards the Riksbank’s Q1 Business Survey as an important release ahead of the March decision.
  • Of course, concerns around US tariffs remain prevalent, but discussions around possible policy responses were limited, with uncertainty still clouding the outlook.
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The January meeting minutes suggest the Executive Board is happy with the current level of rates for now, as they assess the impact of past easing and look for more certainty around the international trade outlook. Governor Thedeen embodied this view most clearly, in our view. However, comments from other members suggest risks are clearly still tilted towards more easing.

  • Deputy Governor Breman noted that “the probability of the next step being a further rate cut is greater than the next step being a rate hike”, while Bunge still questioned whether monetary policy is “too contractionary” at current levels.
  • Although Deputy Governor Seim generally considers current rates to be at appropriate levels, she still highlighted that the Riksbank is prepared to cut rates further, in the event the economy doesn’t recover as expected.
  • On inflation, there continues to be broad-based confidence in the outlook. Deputy Governor Jansson and Governor Thedeen highlighted recent increases in producer prices as a risk to monitor, but that these developments do not yet change the assessment of monetary policy.
  • Recent upturns in growth indicators were widely flagged, but the Board still needs evidence to confirm activity is picking up. Deputy Governor Bunge pointed towards the Riksbank’s Q1 Business Survey as an important release ahead of the March decision.
  • Of course, concerns around US tariffs remain prevalent, but discussions around possible policy responses were limited, with uncertainty still clouding the outlook.