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January CPI Inflation Data Due Ahead Of Banxico Rate Decision

MEXICO
  • Headline CPI inflation is expected to print at 4.88% y/y in January, from 4.66% at end-December, confirming the uptick from the bi-weekly data. For core, the Bloomberg survey sees the annual figure dropping to 4.72%, from 5.09% (1200GMT/0700ET). The data come ahead of the Banxico policy decision at 1900GMT, where most analysts expect the overnight rate to remain unchanged, with only a few seeing the chance of a 25bp cut. Attention will be on the forward guidance, with market participants looking for any change that opens the door to a possible move in March.
  • The full MNI Banxico preview with analyst views is here.
    • Jan. CPI y/y, est. 4.88%, prior 4.66%; m/m est. 0.88%, prior 0.71%
    • Jan Core CPI y/y, est. 4.72%, prior 5.09%; m/m est. 0.36%, prior 0.44%
  • Itaú expect headline and core inflation to print at 0.93% mom and 0.35%, respectively in January. In their view, headline inflation will be pressured by non-core fruits and vegetable prices, with additional pressure also coming from gas and gasoline prices in the second half of the month. If so, they forecast annual headline CPI inflation to increase to 4.93% y/y in January, while annual core CPI inflation would decline to 4.70% y/y.
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