MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

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CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE +5.4% SA THRU DEC 06 WK

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January Economic Activity Due, Petro On Constitutional Rewrite

COLOMBIA
  • January trade balance data will cross at 1500GMT (1100ET) today, with consensus for a widening of the deficit to $900mn, from $546mn in December. Following that, January economic activity data are scheduled for release at 1600GMT(1200ET), with analysts there expecting the economy to have shrunk by 0.3% y/y, vs. +0.1% previously.
    • Jan. Trade Balance, est. -$900m, prior -$546m
    • Jan. Economic Activity NSA YoY, est. -0.3%, prior 0.1%
  • Weak January economic activity will pave the way for BanRep to step up the pace of easing later this week, when it is expected to cut its policy rate by 50bp to 12.25%. On this front, Finance Minister Bonilla said over the weekend that he would cut interest rates by 100bp this week to help spur the economy, according to an interview with El Tiempo. In recent weeks, he has said that the debate in March should be whether to cut by 50bp, 75bp or 100bp, which has contrasted with Governor Villar’s more cautious rhetoric. Meanwhile, BanRep co-director Taboada also said last week that slowing inflation and a weak economy called for more aggressive interest rate cuts.
  • In other news, President Petro called for a national assembly to rewrite the constitution and implement institutional reforms, El Tiempo reported Friday. Petro said the assembly would allow the government to carry out the social reforms that he has proposed and failed to implement.
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