SWEDEN
Swedish January flash inflation is due at 0700GMT/0800CET. The Riksbank projected CPIF ex-energy at 2.4% Y/Y in the December MPR, but this is likely to be mechanically too high, given December inflation surprised two tenths to the downside at 2.0% Y/Y. As such, Bloomberg consensus sees CPIF ex-energy at 2.1% Y/Y.
- Consumption data for 2023 will once again be used to calculate 2025 basket weights (as in 2024), so analysts do not expect a large basket effect in January.
- Analysts generally expect start of year price resets in services (excluding rent) to be smaller than in 2024, while goods components are likely to see seasonal falls in prices.
- The Riksbank’s January meeting minutes continued to signal broad-based confidence in the inflation outlook. Deputy Governor Jansson and Governor Thedeen highlighted recent increases in producer prices as a risk to monitor, but that these developments do not yet change the assessment of monetary policy.
- As a result, we currently consider activity/labour market data and any US tariff developments to be a more important to the near-term Riksbank policy outlook.
- No details will be available in the flash release, with final CPI not due until Feb 18th. See below for a selection of analyst comments:
197 words