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January Inflation Set To Decline Further As New CPI Basket Introduced

CHILE
  • Annual headline inflation is expected to decline to 3.5% in January, from 3.9% previously (1100GMT/0600ET). As a reminder, a previous statement from the BCCh noted that it will not publish any measures for core inflation this month, while it updates its calculations. Revised data for core inflation will be published in March.
    • Jan. CPI y/y, est. 3.5%, prior 3.9%
    • Jan. CPI m/m est. 0.4%, prior -0.5%
  • Itaú note that the January inflation print will be the first to utilise the new 2023 CPI basket, with a reduced weight for services and some volatile items. They expect the CPI to rise by 0.4% m/m, led by the food and housing components. In addition, they expect the annual rate of inflation to decline to 3.5%, while the unofficial reference series for the new basket is expected to come out at 3.1%. JP Morgan has a lower projection for headline CPI to print +0.23%m/m (nsa), consistent with an annual rate of 3.35% y/y.

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