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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
- January typically sees a heavy decline as holiday-related seasonal labor is shed. When the market is tight and firms more broadly are reluctant to let staff go, this can drive a larger increase in seasonally adjusted terms.
- This was clearly the case in Jan’23, with the ~2.5 million drop the smallest for a January since the mid-1990s giving rise to an at-the-time 517k surge in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls vs the 189k expected. That has since been revised down to 482k but it stood out even against a run of strong monthly prints either side of it.
- We wrote in the preview that “this January, the labor market doesn’t appear as tight, with a slightly higher unemployment rate at the end of last year and non-seasonally adjusted continuing jobless claims starting the year higher than in 2023 (but still low by prior year standards), this effect is unlikely to be quite as large but could still be impactful.”
- Indeed, payrolls in Jan’24 fell by -2.635m, not quite matching the -2.523m of Jan’23 but still one of the smallest declines in recent years.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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