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JAPAN DATA: Activity Data Mixed, Retail Spend Falls, IP Rebounds

JAPAN DATA
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Japan retail sales were comfortably below market expectations for Sep. Falling -2.3%m/m, against a -0.3% forecast. This bought the y/y pace down to 0.5% (2.1% was the forecast). This is the weakest pace of retail spend momentum since early 2022. IP for Sep was better, up 1.4%m/m, against a 0.8% forecast. Still the y/y pace remains negative at -2.8%. 

  • For retail there wasn't one positive category in terms of m/m spend. For IP, a rebound in auto production helped the print (+7.1%m/m. The METI expects another rise in Oct output by 8.3%m/m, but Nov is expected to see a pull back (-3.7%m/m).
  • IP rebounding is a positive for Q3 GDP, but the softer spending tone from households will be a BoJ watch point. 
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Japan retail sales were comfortably below market expectations for Sep. Falling -2.3%m/m, against a -0.3% forecast. This bought the y/y pace down to 0.5% (2.1% was the forecast). This is the weakest pace of retail spend momentum since early 2022. IP for Sep was better, up 1.4%m/m, against a 0.8% forecast. Still the y/y pace remains negative at -2.8%. 

  • For retail there wasn't one positive category in terms of m/m spend. For IP, a rebound in auto production helped the print (+7.1%m/m. The METI expects another rise in Oct output by 8.3%m/m, but Nov is expected to see a pull back (-3.7%m/m).
  • IP rebounding is a positive for Q3 GDP, but the softer spending tone from households will be a BoJ watch point.