MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, October 17

MNI BRIEF: Beijing Awaiting EU Response On Next Stage Talks

MNI INTERVIEW: Muted Impact On EU Inflation From MidEast Oil

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MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY17.4 Bln via OMO Thursday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1220 Thurs; +2.76% Y/Y

MNI: EUROZONE SEP FINAL HICP -0.1% M/M, +1.7% Y/Y

Australia Sep Unemployment Rate 4.1%

MNI:AUSTRALIA SEP UNEMPLOYMENT RATE +4.1%

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Faces More Pressure To Resign

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

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JAPAN DATA: Export Growth In Negative Territory, Trade Deficit Persists

JAPAN DATA
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Japan September trade figures saw export growth drop into negative y/y territory (-1.7%, against a 0.9% forecast and 5.5% prior). This was the weakest export growth print since the early stages of 2021 (in y/y terms). Imports held up at 2.1%y/y, albeit still below market expectations (+2.8%, prior +2.3%). The trade balances remained in negative territory, -¥187.2bn, but this was better than forecast (-¥521bn and prior was -¥472bn). 

  • Exports to all the major economies/regions fell in y/y terms. -2.4% for the US, -7.3% for China and -9% for the EU. In volume terms exports were down -6.9%y/y. China export volumes fell -15.1% y/y.
  • The slower export backdrop is consistent with other North East Asia economies, see the chart below (Japan is the red line).
  • Weaker export growth will at the margin give the BOJ more caution around the growth/rate outlook.
  • The trade deficit remains negative but has seen trend improvement in recent months (on a seasonally adjusted basis).

 Fig 1: Japan Export Trend Slows - Y/Y 

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Japan September trade figures saw export growth drop into negative y/y territory (-1.7%, against a 0.9% forecast and 5.5% prior). This was the weakest export growth print since the early stages of 2021 (in y/y terms). Imports held up at 2.1%y/y, albeit still below market expectations (+2.8%, prior +2.3%). The trade balances remained in negative territory, -¥187.2bn, but this was better than forecast (-¥521bn and prior was -¥472bn). 

  • Exports to all the major economies/regions fell in y/y terms. -2.4% for the US, -7.3% for China and -9% for the EU. In volume terms exports were down -6.9%y/y. China export volumes fell -15.1% y/y.
  • The slower export backdrop is consistent with other North East Asia economies, see the chart below (Japan is the red line).
  • Weaker export growth will at the margin give the BOJ more caution around the growth/rate outlook.
  • The trade deficit remains negative but has seen trend improvement in recent months (on a seasonally adjusted basis).

 Fig 1: Japan Export Trend Slows - Y/Y 

Keep reading...Show less