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JAPAN DATA: Tankan Results Mostly Firmer Than Forecast, Resilient Backdrop

JAPAN DATA
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Japan's Q3 Tankan survey results were mostly firmer than expected. The table below, from BBG, presents the actual and expected outcomes. For large manufacturers, the current index and outlook metrics both ticked higher. The outlook for this segment is close to cycle highs. 

  • For large non-manufactures it was similar although the outlook didn't rise as much as markets expected. Capex intentions didn't rise as much as consensus forecasts implied but are still holding up well, albeit off 2022 cycle highs.
  • For smaller firmer, we were ahead of expectations, albeit at lower absolute levels compared to larger firms. This was the first improvement in sentiment for smaller firms since the end of 2023.
  • All in all the data paints a resilient picture for Japan's economy, albeit one that is not running away rapidly. 

Table 1: Q3 Japan Tankan Results 

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Japan's Q3 Tankan survey results were mostly firmer than expected. The table below, from BBG, presents the actual and expected outcomes. For large manufacturers, the current index and outlook metrics both ticked higher. The outlook for this segment is close to cycle highs. 

  • For large non-manufactures it was similar although the outlook didn't rise as much as markets expected. Capex intentions didn't rise as much as consensus forecasts implied but are still holding up well, albeit off 2022 cycle highs.
  • For smaller firmer, we were ahead of expectations, albeit at lower absolute levels compared to larger firms. This was the first improvement in sentiment for smaller firms since the end of 2023.
  • All in all the data paints a resilient picture for Japan's economy, albeit one that is not running away rapidly. 

Table 1: Q3 Japan Tankan Results 

Keep reading...Show less