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JGBS: Futures Slightly Weaker Overnight, Light Local Calendar

JGBS
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In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures are slightly weaker, -3 compared to settlement levels, after US tsys squeezed out modest gains in the absence of first-tier economic data. The 2-year yield closed down 3bps to 3.96% after testing 4.02% Monday. The 10-year was fractionally lower at 4.01%, a second straight close over 4%.

  • The market now awaits today’s September FOMC minutes ahead of Thursday’s CPI/PPI data on Thursday and Friday respectively.
  • While the vast majority of participants have since commented that they supported the half-point cut, the meeting decision brought the first dissent from a Fed governor (Bowman) since 2005, and it will be interesting to get a gauge of how many non-voting members also opposed the outsized rate reduction.
  • Consensus sees core CPI at 0.2% M/M in September, although there is a sizeable skew toward a higher outcome and our survey of unrounded estimates sees an average 0.26% M/M.
  • Japan's Government officials continue to stress unity between the central bank and the new government, with ending deflation as the common goal. Yesterday's labour earnings/spending data showed real trends slipping back into negative territory, likely ruling out any near BoJ action.
  • Today, the local calendar will see Machine Tool Orders.
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In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures are slightly weaker, -3 compared to settlement levels, after US tsys squeezed out modest gains in the absence of first-tier economic data. The 2-year yield closed down 3bps to 3.96% after testing 4.02% Monday. The 10-year was fractionally lower at 4.01%, a second straight close over 4%.

  • The market now awaits today’s September FOMC minutes ahead of Thursday’s CPI/PPI data on Thursday and Friday respectively.
  • While the vast majority of participants have since commented that they supported the half-point cut, the meeting decision brought the first dissent from a Fed governor (Bowman) since 2005, and it will be interesting to get a gauge of how many non-voting members also opposed the outsized rate reduction.
  • Consensus sees core CPI at 0.2% M/M in September, although there is a sizeable skew toward a higher outcome and our survey of unrounded estimates sees an average 0.26% M/M.
  • Japan's Government officials continue to stress unity between the central bank and the new government, with ending deflation as the common goal. Yesterday's labour earnings/spending data showed real trends slipping back into negative territory, likely ruling out any near BoJ action.
  • Today, the local calendar will see Machine Tool Orders.