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JGBS: Natl CPI In-Line, BoJ Policy Decision In Focus

JGBS
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In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures are little changed, +1 compared to settlement levels, after US tsys 

  • National CPI prints 3.0% y/y versus +3.0% estimate and +2.8% prior. Core and Core-Core print 2.8% y/y and 2.0% y/y respectively versus estimates of +2.8% and 2.0% and priors of +2.7% and +1.9%.
  • The local calendar will also see Weekly International Investment Flow data ahead of today’s BoJ Policy Decision. The markets will be closely watching for any signals regarding future monetary policy normalisation. That said, the consensus unanimously expects no change to the 0.25% target rate at this meeting. Several factors suggest a wait-and-see approach, including uncertainty around the US economic outlook and market volatility. (See MNI BoJ Preview here)
  • Overnight, the US 2-year yield fell 4bps to 3.58%, the richest since mid-September 2022, with the 10-year yield 1bp higher at 3.71%. The curve steepened 4bps to 13bps, the most positive since early June 2022.
  • US tsys gapped cheaper after lower than expected weekly jobless claims 219k vs. 230k est– covering a payrolls reference period for the September report – after a marginally upward revised 231k (initial 230k). Meanwhile, existing home sales were a little softer than expected in August at 3.86m (saar, cons 3.90m) after a marginally upward revised 3.96m (initial 3.95m).
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In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures are little changed, +1 compared to settlement levels, after US tsys 

  • National CPI prints 3.0% y/y versus +3.0% estimate and +2.8% prior. Core and Core-Core print 2.8% y/y and 2.0% y/y respectively versus estimates of +2.8% and 2.0% and priors of +2.7% and +1.9%.
  • The local calendar will also see Weekly International Investment Flow data ahead of today’s BoJ Policy Decision. The markets will be closely watching for any signals regarding future monetary policy normalisation. That said, the consensus unanimously expects no change to the 0.25% target rate at this meeting. Several factors suggest a wait-and-see approach, including uncertainty around the US economic outlook and market volatility. (See MNI BoJ Preview here)
  • Overnight, the US 2-year yield fell 4bps to 3.58%, the richest since mid-September 2022, with the 10-year yield 1bp higher at 3.71%. The curve steepened 4bps to 13bps, the most positive since early June 2022.
  • US tsys gapped cheaper after lower than expected weekly jobless claims 219k vs. 230k est– covering a payrolls reference period for the September report – after a marginally upward revised 231k (initial 230k). Meanwhile, existing home sales were a little softer than expected in August at 3.86m (saar, cons 3.90m) after a marginally upward revised 3.96m (initial 3.95m).