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JGBS: Pressured By US Tsys As Trump Win Priced In

JGBS
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JGB futures are sharply weaker, -50 compared to the settlement levels, in line with movements in cash US tsys as the US election unfolds.

  • Outside of the previously outlined BoJ Minutes from the September policy meeting, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
  • The NYT needle has pushed out of 'lean-Trump' into 'likely-Trump' for the first time this evening amid strong exit poll data for Trump among Latino voters in Michigan and a slight lead for Trump in critical Pennsylvania.
  • Nate Cohen at the Times notes: "[Trump] has an advantage in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. To win, Harris would need to sweep all three. There is still a lot of vote left, but in the voting so far, Trump is narrowly but discernibly ahead."
  • Trump-related trades continue to gain ground. Bitcoin is now up above 5%. US equity futures are up ~1.0% for Eminis. US yields are up 10-16bps with a steeper curve.
  • Cash JGBs are 1-5bps cheaper across benchmarks, with the futures-linked 7-year leading. The benchmark 10-year yield is 4.4bps higher at 0.986%.
  • Swap rates are 3-5bps higher, with a steepening bias
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Labor and Real Cash Earnings, and Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies data alongside 10-year supply.
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JGB futures are sharply weaker, -50 compared to the settlement levels, in line with movements in cash US tsys as the US election unfolds.

  • Outside of the previously outlined BoJ Minutes from the September policy meeting, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
  • The NYT needle has pushed out of 'lean-Trump' into 'likely-Trump' for the first time this evening amid strong exit poll data for Trump among Latino voters in Michigan and a slight lead for Trump in critical Pennsylvania.
  • Nate Cohen at the Times notes: "[Trump] has an advantage in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. To win, Harris would need to sweep all three. There is still a lot of vote left, but in the voting so far, Trump is narrowly but discernibly ahead."
  • Trump-related trades continue to gain ground. Bitcoin is now up above 5%. US equity futures are up ~1.0% for Eminis. US yields are up 10-16bps with a steeper curve.
  • Cash JGBs are 1-5bps cheaper across benchmarks, with the futures-linked 7-year leading. The benchmark 10-year yield is 4.4bps higher at 0.986%.
  • Swap rates are 3-5bps higher, with a steepening bias
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Labor and Real Cash Earnings, and Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies data alongside 10-year supply.