US DATA
April's JOLTS report was softer than expected, showing the lowest number of job openings since February 2021, at 8.059m vs 8.355m in March (downwardly revised from 8.488m). That compares to a survey median 8.350m and represents a 2-month drop of over 750k.
- The ratio of job openings to unemployed fell to 1.24 from 1.30 prior (rev from 1.32), the lowest since September 2021. That figure averaged 1.19 in 2019, pre-pandemic.
- With March's quits rates upwardly revised by 0.1pp, the overall rate has been remarkably steady at 2.2% for 6 consecutive months; private sector quits were 2.4% for a 2nd month (had been 2.3% Mar prior to release), and the 4th month in the past 5.
- Those remain notably lower than the pre-pandemic (2019) averages for quits of 2.33% (overall) and 2.59% (private).
- Construction and manufacturing sector quit rates notably jumped, with professional/business, and "other" services falling sharply.
- The hiring rate was steady at 3.6%/private 3.9%.
- Overall the drop in openings and steady rather than rising job churn is encouraging for the doves among the FOMC heading into next week's meeting and economic projections.
- But Friday's nonfarm payrolls release will be of greater importance, not least because it is a more recent read (May) on labor market dynamics.
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