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Job Vacancies Continue To Correct Lower, Inflation Expectations Tick Up

AUSTRALIA DATA
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Australian data has showed a further drop in job vacancies in the quarter ending May. We were down 2.7%, which follows a revised fall in the prior quarter of 6.2% (originally reported as a 6.1% drop). This continues the correction lower in the trend of job vacancies, see the chart below.

  • The ABS noted: "“May 2024 marked two years since the peak in job vacancies in May 2022. Since then, vacancies have fallen by 26.0 per cent. “However, job vacancies were still well above their pre-COVID-19 pandemic level. There were still around 54.8 per cent, or around 125,000, more vacancies than in February 2020."
  • This is further suggestion of a cooling labour market backdrop, albeit from elevated levels. A modest move higher in the unemployment rate is projected by the RBA.
  • Other data showed consumer inflation expectations ticked back up in June. We rose to 4.4% from 4.1% in May. This is still sub the year ago level of 5.2%.

Fig 1: Australian Job Vacancies - Level Terms

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Australian data has showed a further drop in job vacancies in the quarter ending May. We were down 2.7%, which follows a revised fall in the prior quarter of 6.2% (originally reported as a 6.1% drop). This continues the correction lower in the trend of job vacancies, see the chart below.

  • The ABS noted: "“May 2024 marked two years since the peak in job vacancies in May 2022. Since then, vacancies have fallen by 26.0 per cent. “However, job vacancies were still well above their pre-COVID-19 pandemic level. There were still around 54.8 per cent, or around 125,000, more vacancies than in February 2020."
  • This is further suggestion of a cooling labour market backdrop, albeit from elevated levels. A modest move higher in the unemployment rate is projected by the RBA.
  • Other data showed consumer inflation expectations ticked back up in June. We rose to 4.4% from 4.1% in May. This is still sub the year ago level of 5.2%.

Fig 1: Australian Job Vacancies - Level Terms

Keep reading...Show less