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Job Vacancies Still Normalizing, But Slowly

CANADA DATA
  • The SEPH report showed a strong bounce in payroll employment with +129.9k in May after a downward revised -66.6k (initially -140.3k). The PSAC strikes have meant large swings in federal govt public administration roles - strip those out and payroll roles increased 24k in May after 32k.
  • Vacancies saw a measured further decline, with the rate down another tenth to 4.3% for its lowest since May’21 but still above the low 3%s in the run up to the pandemic. (Broadly similar relative trends when looking at vacancies per unemployed as well).
  • Wage growth using fixed weights eased from 4.7% to 3.7% Y/Y although the series has been volatile, oscillating between 2.7-4.1% Y/Y in recent months.
  • The volatility of fixed-weight wages makes it hard to read too much into any given month but it’s trending at a rate that is more comparable with the latest moderation in the more timely June data from the main labour report, when a variety of wage measures slower ~1pp to 3.9-4.2% Y/Y.

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