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Jobs Growth Expected To Bounce Back

AUSTRALIA DATA

The closely watched labour force data are released in just over an hour. Employment is expected to rise by 35k for August with the unemployment rate steady at 3.4% (series low).

  • Forecasts are generally positive in the 10k-110k range for employment and 3.2%-3.6% for the unemployment rate.
  • Economists generally believe that the 40.9k drop in July was an anomaly due to sampling rotation, winter illnesses and school holidays, and that the labour market remains tight.
  • This is consistent with indicators that show employment remains strong for now although it is worth noting that it is a lagging indicator of economic activity. NAB employment rose to a new high in July and remained elevated in August, and July vacancies were 61% of the number of unemployed.
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