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Free AccessJohn Briggs, Natwest Markets.......>
US TSYS/RESEARCH: John Briggs, Natwest Markets head of strategy/Americas, said
10yr yields "have closed within 5bps of 2.30% for 16 straight sessions, and for
21 of the last 25 sessions. I'm not sure the next two sessions will give us much
cause to move further beyond our current range within the range we have
established, though if we do, in my opinion it's likely to be to the downside in
yield."
- He adds "the big news for the US is tomorrow" with the July employment report,
"where NWM Economics sees +170k, a 4.3% rate, and a +0.3% m/m gain for average
hourly earnings. That monthly rate of earnings growth would put the y/y figure
unchanged at 2.5%, which as chart attachment one shows, continues to be a
disappointing rate at this point in the cycle. But it's not the data forecast
that has me biased, for those numbers continue to point to a healthy labor
market, and it's not just my overall bullish bond view. It's the reaction
function of the bond market this week that has me thinking that bonds are more
likely to have a stronger bull reaction to weak data than a bear reaction to
strong data."
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.