John Briggs, Natwest Markets.......>

US TSYS/RESEARCH: John Briggs, Natwest Markets head of strategy/Americas, said

10yr yields "have closed within 5bps of 2.30% for 16 straight sessions, and for

21 of the last 25 sessions. I'm not sure the next two sessions will give us much

cause to move further beyond our current range within the range we have

established, though if we do, in my opinion it's likely to be to the downside in

yield." 

- He adds "the big news for the US is tomorrow" with the July employment report,

"where NWM Economics sees +170k, a 4.3% rate, and a +0.3% m/m gain for average

hourly earnings. That monthly rate of earnings growth would put the y/y figure

unchanged at 2.5%, which as chart attachment one shows, continues to be a

disappointing rate at this point in the cycle. But it's not the data forecast

that has me biased, for those numbers continue to point to a healthy labor

market, and it's not just my overall bullish bond view. It's the reaction

function of the bond market this week that has me thinking that bonds are more

likely to have a stronger bull reaction to weak data than a bear reaction to

strong data."