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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
At 1200BST (0700ET, 1300CET) in the House of Commons, Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces his first prime minister's questions since the confidence vote held in his leadership by Conservative MPs earlier this week.
- Westminster politics remains in something of a holding pattern at present, with politicians and observers seeking signs of whether Johnson will be able to formulate policies and make assurances that could get some of the 148 Conservative MPs that voted against him back on side. Alternative is that Johnson remains a wounded PM given the large scale rebellion, and finds it increasingly difficult to govern.
- It should be noted that PMQs may not be the best demonstration of Johnson's support within the party or lack thereof. Given opposition Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer is likely to lean heavily on Conservative divisions as a course of questioning, this could galvanise some Conservative MPs to offer a more full-throated support of the PM than they would usually be inclined to.
- Political betting markets remain largely divided on the question of how long Johnson remains in office. By a narrow margin, 2022 is the favourite year for the PM to leave office with a 39.4% implied probability according to bettors. 2024 or later is narrowly second on 37.0%, and 2023 third on 25.6%.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of PM Johnson Exit Year, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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