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UK: Week Ahead

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Johnson Favoured To Win Vote, But Significant Rebellion Seen

UK

The Telegraph's Tony Diver tweets: "Rebel ringleaders are telling MPs they have north of 150 votes against the PM ahead of tonight. That's just 30 shy of the 180 needed to oust him, with just three hours to go."

  • Johnson had about 90% probability of winning the vote a little earlier this afternoon, per Betfair. Now closer to 85%.
  • That said, and recalling 180 is the magic number: the Betfair odds have 100-149 votes of "no confidence" as the most likely single range (55% chance). Prob of 150-199 votes is about 30%. About 12% chance that between 50-99 vote no confidence.
  • So as betting markets see it, there is a very high probability that at least 100 Conservative MPs will vote no confidence, with a still-high probability that number will exceed 150.
  • Conservative Home counts 39 MPs publicly saying they do not support Johnson, vs 110 backing him.
HomepagePolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletUKMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
HomepagePolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletUKMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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