Johnson Targets Strong GOP Vote On CR To Diffuse Conservative Opposition

With a House vote on the Continuing Resolution to fund the government and avert a government shutdownexpected later today, it is worth examining a few dynamics which may inform the risk of a government shutdown at the new funding deadlines in March.

• The vote will be taken under suspension of rules. This discharges the bill to the floor directly; bypassing the House Rules Committee. This is required as the committee is stacked with conservatives who could tank the bill.
• Suspension of rules dictates a vote is taken without debate or amendment. It will require a two-third majority and therefore, Democrat support. The final vote tally will signal how strong Johnson's hand will be when it comes to the next spending showdown with conservatives. If more Democrats vote in favour of the bill than Republicans, Johnson's negotiating position with fiscal conservatives will be degraded.
• The prevailing view is that a government shutdown would be politically damaging for the party in control of the House (Republicans) in an election year.
• A survey by progressive pollster Navigator found that the previous shutdown crisis in September saw a significant shift towards attributing blame to Republicans, particularly amongst Independent.
• Navigator concluded this week in a re-analysis of the data: "There is no reason to expect that there would not be a similar backlash toward a government shutdown today than there was three months ago, nor would there be any reason to expect blame wouldn’t start shifting toward Republican lawmakers as it did last fall."