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JOLTS Yet Another Non-NFP Indicator Of Labor Market Strength

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

The July JOLTS report released today showed a record 10.934mn job openings, far higher than the consensus 10.05mn.

  • This meant a new record for the gap of job openings over the number of unemployed people: 2.232mn "excess" jobs (vs the 8.702mn unemployed in July). The previous record was November 2018 (1.459mn).
  • Put another way, there were 1.26 job openings per unemployed person in the US in July. That figure doesn't tell the full picture: the pandemic and other factors have created significant mismatches in the labor force that preclude the openings simply being filled by the existing members of the unemployed labor force.
  • But by the same token, it's yet another labor market indicator that points to a very strong employment picture, even if nonfarm payrolls disappointed badly in August.
  • Also worth flagging is the all-time high 3.1% private sector quit rate - as workers leave their jobs for opportunities elsewhere, it's potentially a positive for wage growth beyond attracting new hires (due to the need to incentivize staff retention).


Source: BLS, MNI

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