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JP Morgan Expect 50bp Rate Hike in July; Increase GDP Growth Estimates

RUSSIA
  • JPM expect the board to act at the July meeting, hiking the key rate 50bp to 8.0%, followed by a couple more hikes later in the year to bring the rate to 9.0% by year-end. They think the tightening cycle should be brief and once the economy cools off and inflation stabilizes around the 4% target – perhaps later in 2024 – the CBR should be able to reverse course.
  • JPM entered the year with a forecast of Russia’s GDP declining 1.0% in 2023. Now, they predict 2023 GDP will increase 2.4%, followed by 1.7% growth in 2024. Their 2023 growth forecast stands above the CBR’s 0.5-2.0% range, although CBR officials have already admitted that growth is tracking closer to the upper end of the range.

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