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JP Morgan: Jobs Data Welcome Sign Labor Coming into Balance

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Reviewing Friday's employment data miss, JP Morgan note "all the important figures in the April jobs report came in a little softer than expected, and a little softer than the recent trend...Fed officials will likely view today’s report as a welcome sign that the labor market is continuing to come into better balance and that policy is restrictive enough to cool off labor demand."
  • JPM is "sticking with our call for a first ease in July. The market is not there but we believe that if the next two job reports show continued cooling in labor market activity, then the FOMC will be comfortable taking back some of its policy restraint."
  • "On a 3-month and 12-month annualized basis, the latest readings on average hourly earnings (2.8% and 3.9%, respectively) were the softest seen in some time. This moderation in wage growth has been reasonably broad-based across industries."
  • "The household survey did show strong employment growth in April (563,000) when adjusting to be closer to the establishment survey’s payroll concept of employment. But even with this strong April gain, the adjusted series in the household survey still has shown weaker job growth than the establishment survey on net in recent months."
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