CANADA JUNE JOBS -1.4K VS FORECAST +20K, PRIOR +26.7K

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, July 5

MNI BRIEF: PBOC Plans To Borrow Hundred Bln Yuan CGB - Press

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY48 Bln Via OMO Fri; Rates Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1289 Fri; -0.35% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

MNI: BLS: NET PAYROLLS REVISIONS FOR MAY, APRIL -111K

US JUN AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS +0.3% Vs MAY +0.4%; +3.9% YOY

US JUN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.1%

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

JP Morgan, Nedbank Still Expect SARB Hold Decision Following October CPI Beat

SOUTH AFRICA
  • JP Morgan’s post-CPI outlook remains for the policy rate to remain on hold through to mid-24, with a first cut either in May or alternatively in July, hinging also on FX developments. They say the MPC will probably signal its readiness to act should inflation concerns re-emerge and that the tone of the statement should remain hawkish. On today’s inflation print, they think the miss on food accounts for almost 0.2ppts of the 0.3ppt miss in headline inflation, with the rest mostly due to higher hotel costs.
  • Nedbank say since monetary policy is forward-looking, October’s inflation print should have an immaterial effect on tomorrow’s MPC decision, and still believe the SARB has done enough to contain inflation and ensure a sustainable return to the 4.5% target. They expect inflation to moderate in the last two months of the year, mainly pulled down by lower transport costs on the back of softer global oil prices and a steadier rand.
  • Goldman Sachs say headline inflation is likely to fall back to around 5.3% y/y in November and back toward the target mid-point in Q1 2024. They expect core inflation to continue to edge lower and undershoot the target mid-point in 2024.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.