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JP Morgan Not Forecasting Significant Oil Disruption on Middle East Tension

OIL

JP Morgan does not expect Middle East instability to result in a long-term oil price spike according to a recent research note.

  • “Even if the fighting spreads beyond Israel and the Palestinian territories, it is unlikely to result in a prolonged oil price spike,” it said.
  • The banks research team cite a limited risk of future supply losses as a result of the conflict and said significant parties have powerful incentives to avoid further escalation.
  • On the demand side, JP Morgan said that high prices, surging borrowing costs and depreciating emerging economy currencies are weighing on global demand.
  • “there are tangible signs that demand has begun to erode” it said.
  • At $93/bbl for Brent, JP Morgan placed a $7/bbl premium on oil at present because of the Middle East uncertainty.
  • It still forecasts a balanced oil market Q4 compared to draws in Q3 and forecasts Brent finishing the year at $86/bbl.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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