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JP Morgan On NBH 1W Deposit and Policy Rates

HUNGARY
  • JPM analysts expect NBH to leave the 1w-depo unchanged tomorrow, hiking only in the regular policy meeting, but a small move cannot be ruled out.
  • Analysts expects a 30bp hike to both the 1w-depo and the base rate at this month’s policy meeting.
  • In JPM view the recent 1w-depo hikes are not to be reversed, as the inflation outlook will stay elevated throughout 2022. Instead it is the base rate which will catch up to the depo.
  • JPM expect that at this month’s policy meeting both rates will be lifted by 30bps (base rate to 2.4% and 1w-depo to 3.4%), a pace which will continue in early 2022.
  • The 1w-depo will likely peak at 4% in 1Q22, and after that the central bank will gradually lift the base rate only, until it reaches the same level as the depo around mid-year.
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